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Roswell: Flying Saucer Vs. Mogul Balloon
Here are some further thoughts about that July 1947 Roswell “flying saucer” that crashed or crashed-landed outside of that town, with some additional emphasis on the prosaic Project Mogul explanation that explains all – not.
Firstly, I consider any bona-fide UFO that remains a UFO after investigation by those qualified to do so as bona-fide evidence that something extraordinary – and therefore of scientific interest – is going on. That’s even more the case when the numbers mount up into the hundreds, even thousands worldwide. Every bona-fide UFO case, every solid unknown, is a “WOW” event in the same way that that “WOW” event in SETI circles is cited again and again as something extraordinary.
Secondly, when it comes to UFO incidents, the earlier the better in order to minimize all of the cultural and social related stuff that now goes with the subject and taints it.
There are dozens of excellent bona-fide cases from 1947 through 1952 (especially Washington, DC – July 1952). After that, things get potentially more tainted but there are still lots of good unknowns.
Here’s a case and quote from the Condon Report that skeptics put so much stock in – that Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying Objects – regarding the McMinnville, Oregon UFO photographs taken 11 May 1950.
“This is one of the few UFO reports in which all factors investigated, geometric, psychological, and physical appear to be consistent with the assertion that an extraordinary flying object, silvery, metallic, disk-shaped, tens of meters in diameter, and evidently artificial, flew within sight of two witnesses.”
Then we have footage from the two classic UFO films from Great Falls, Montana (August 1950) and Tremonton, Utah (July 1952) both of which to this very day still carry the tag “unidentified”. One could go one and on with UFO “WOW” cases.
But if one wants THE case, let’s start with Roswell.
So, even though the following case is ‘explained’, the very fact that it happened so early on in UFO lore and the major participants are no nonsense military officers, and there’s material on the public record that cannot be dismissed or disputed, I’d have to go with Roswell as the cream of the crop (I can see readers rolling their eyes up now).
Roswell Is Boring: Apparently Roswell is not regarded by most of the UFO experts in America as an interesting case. Roswell seems to be considered a very weak case by UFO investigators. Some prefer this case (like Rendlesham Forest) or that case or some other case as the bees-knees of ufology but not Roswell. However if Roswell is such an uninteresting case, why are more books devoted to that case than any other UFO case? I bet if I Google “Roswell” vs. “Rendlesham Forest” I’d get way more hits on the former! In any event, Roswell is the only bona-fide UFO case I know of where the US military admitted publicly it was in possession of an actual “flying saucer” (and they have been back-pedalling furiously ever since). That alone, IMHO, makes it unique and therefore highly interesting.
Relevant Roswell Personnel: The buck obviously stops with Colonel Blanchard, the Roswell Army Air Field (RAAF) CO, who dictated and ordered the issuing of the initial Roswell press release. According to the sceptical Roswell UFO tome authored by Kal K. Korff, The Roswell UFO Crash: What They Don’t Want You To Know [Prometheus Books, Amherst, N.Y. 1997; p.28], “Ramey telephones Colonel Blanchard and conveys to him both General [Lt. Gen Hoyt S.] Vandenburg’s and his own ‘extreme displeasure’ over the fact that a press release was issued without proper authority.” However, Colonel Blanchard was never officially reprimanded, and eventually rose to the rank of a full four-star general in the USAF. That Colonel Blanchard was not reprimanded is puzzling since it was because of his ‘mistake’ that he created a major headache for officialdom, one which persists down to this very day. The obvious question was whether this rise in rank and lack of a reprimand was payment for Blanchard to keep his mouth shut over the reality of the Roswell event. It has been reported (Korff – p.49) that Mrs. Blanchard has allegedly stated that following the death of her husband that he had believed the Roswell debris had an out of this world origin, for what that’s worth.
Former Lt. Walter Haut, the RAAF PIO Officer in July 1947 who wrote up (under the direction and orders of Colonel Blanchard) that press release, stated in a signed affidavit dated 14 May 1993 that “there is no chance that he [Colonel Blanchard] would have mistaken it [“a flying saucer or parts thereof”] for a weather balloon. Neither is there any chance that Major Marcel would have been mistaken.” Haut also stated that “In 1980, Jesse Marcel told me that the material photographed in Gen. Ramey’s office was not the material he recovered.” [See also The General Ramey Photo-op section below.] Haut continued that “I am convinced that the material recovered was some type of craft from outer space.”
W.W. ‘Mac’ Brazel, who discovered the wreckage is on record (Roswell Daily Record, 9 July 1947) as stating that he had previously discovered two downed balloons (presumably weather) on the property and that this new debris did not correspond to that type of artefact.
The 1995 USAF Report: As a result of public and congressional pressure, the USAF reopened the Roswell case in about 1994, publishing their findings in their 1995 document The Roswell Report: Fact vs. Fiction in the New Mexico Desert. There’s a whole potful of points to be made with respect to this document and findings, which in brief that Roswell is explainable by a downed Project Mogul balloon.
Point One: The USAF searched internally for relevant documents or records regarding Roswell. They found nothing unusual had occurred involving extraterrestrial materials or alien bodies that was officially documented. Of course that search only could have extended to unclassified or declassified records. And that’s the whole crux of the matter. If Roswell had something to do with or involved extraterrestrial materials and/or alien bodies, and that had been documented, that material and documents would still be classified and hence not be available to those doing this reinvestigation for official historical records. Thus, their findings via a document search that the Roswell case as far as ET was concerned was lacking documentation hence validity and thus incorrect resulted in their ‘final word’ on the matter, a ‘case closed’ conclusion, is bogus. Even if the compilers of this 1995 report knew about classified Roswell documentation involving ET, they couldn’t say so in an unclassified public report.
Point Two: Their search for documentation was confined to what records the USAF had under their control. Omitted from the search were documents that other agencies might have held, including the US Army. That’s a major flaw in that in July 1947 there was no USAF, only the US Army Air Force.
Point Three: A big deal was made over the fact that there appeared to be no nationwide heightened military alert or operation or security activity during that immediate post recovery interval. There was no higher tempo of operational activity or messages going to and fro, etc. which the report says is highly suggestive that nothing unusual was going on. Well, why would there be, heightened activity that is. We’re not talking “Earth vs. the Flying Saucers” or “Independence Day” here. We’re talking wreckage from just one location here, not nationwide invasion by Bug-Eyed Monsters with heat rays and ray guns a-blazing. Was the military going to declare war on ET based on some alien debris?
Point Four: The only thing they found were records about a then ultra Top Secret Priority 1A project called Mogul, instrumentation lofted high into the atmosphere by balloons to detect above ground Soviet nuclear testing. These flights were launched from New Mexico in June and July of 1947. Ah! What goes up must come down; two plus two equals four; Roswell case solved. Roswell wasn’t a weather balloon; that WAS a cover-up story. Roswell was a Mogul balloon! At least the USAF admitted that something out of the ordinary happened.
Point Five: The 1995 USAF report did state or conclude was Roswell was not. Roswell was not an airplane crash. Roswell was not a missile crash. Roswell was not a nuclear accident. Roswell was not an extraterrestrial craft. Of course they would say that, even truthfully if no unclassified or declassified documents said otherwise – it’s all that classified stuff that might let that Roswell cat out of the Roswell bag.
Point Six: We finally get around to the official conclusions which in a quickie version amounts to a whopping big MAYBE when it comes to Mogul. Let’s quote the quotes and see where the chips fall. “The Air Force research did not locate or develop any information that the ‘Roswell Incident’ was a UFO event” [Obviously for reasons already gone into]. “All available official materials, although they do not directly address Roswell per se [their italics], indicate that the most likely source of the wreckage recovered from the Brazel Ranch [sic – actually the Foster Ranch; Brazel was just the foreman, not the owner] was from one of the Project Mogul balloon trains.” [Reference: page 30 of the 1995 USAF report.] Of course there was no identification of exactly which one of those Mogul balloon trains.
So in other words, no established causality was found between Mogul and Roswell, its all conjecture. So, no cause and effect was established and Mogul is concluded to be only a “most likely source”. That’s hardly proof beyond reasonable doubt. However, if one turns back to page 22 of the 1995 USAF report, you’re led to believe under the section “WHAT THE ‘ROSWELL INCIDENT’ WAS” was that Mogul was the be-all-and-end-all of the matter. It wasn’t they; it isn’t now.
Point Seven: I can’t really accuse the USAF of an initial cover-up as most pro-Roswell buffs do since their cover-up orders would have come from even higher authority. I can’t say this 1995 report is a cover-up since for reasons noted above, the report, to drive the point home, could not reveal the existence of anything that was still classified.
Lost and Found: Isn’t it absolutely amazing that the team responsible for operating (launching and recovering) those top secret Project Mogul balloon flights lost one somewhere outside of Roswell, N.M. That’s rather gross, in fact absolute negligence IMHO. And apparently they made no effort to recover their lost top secret property from the RAAF immediately the Roswell incident broke out in the press. In fairness, some of the Mogul flights were “service flights or test flights and thus the powers-that-be might have been more nonchalant about them and losing one. Now Mogul balloons were tagged with whom to contact (University of New York) if found, along with a reward offered and reimbursement for time and trouble taken. No doubt the powers-that-be thought that there was no real chance Joe & Mary Citizen would have figured out the real top secret purpose of the stuff. To Joe & Mary Citizen it would have just been a weather balloon. That misidentification was reinforced on the “to be contacted” tag which clearly noted (that misinformation) that this was “weather equipment”. So, with all that Roswell debris recovered, the RAAF personnel never did find that “please contact if found” Mogul tag, logical if the debris wasn’t from a Mogul balloon flight.
If the Roswell debris collected by the RAAF [Roswell Army Air Field] personnel proved not to be the property of the RAAF they seemed not to have gone through any official channels to find out the proper owners (and maybe get financial compensation for cleaning up their mess). Why’s that? Of course if the materials were from ‘out of this world’ that might explain that.
Here’s a contradiction. Even the 1995 USAF report on Roswell* stated it was only probable that a Project Mogul balloon was the cause of the Roswell incident, yet the Roswell debris was in the hands of the AAF (now USAF) and should have been easily identified as the debris from the missing (lost) Mogul flight and therefore there should have been no probability involved in the Roswell explanation, rather instead a certainty.
The General Ramey Photo-Op: The whole photo-op that was staged in Forth Worth was clearly to reinforce the new official line that Roswell wreckage was just balloon material, and any book about Roswell will contain one or more of the official photographs taken by both civilian photographers and a base photographer. As far as the photographers were concerned, it was an all look but don’t touch quickie session – in and out ASAP. Present were of course Brigadier General Roger Ramey; Ramey’s Chief-of-Staff Colonel Thomas J. DuBose; Major Jesse Marcel (who wasn’t allowed to say one word; just pose and smile for the camera and grin and bear the embarrassment); and Warrant Officer Irving Newton, the base weather officer whose presence was just to confirm for the record that the wreckage displayed was that from a weather balloon.
It should have been sufficient IMHO for General Ramey to just issue a press statement downplaying the Roswell event with the weather balloon cover-up, or cover story, and ordering all other relevant RAAF personnel to back up that weather balloon tale if asked (an order which of course General Ramey, well, so ordered), and thus letting the story quickly fade away as having been explained by something mundane.
Instead, General Ramey goes over-the-top at far greater expense (and exposure) to strut the public stage and demonstrate the (apparent) reality of the weather balloon story or explanation with actual weather balloon materials and actual photographic ‘evidence’ of same. Of course you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure out that what was photographed in General Ramey’s office may not had any connection whatever with the actual Roswell debris. The photo-op wasn’t really evidence since there was ample opportunity to substitute real weather balloon debris for the Roswell wreckage before-the-fact. You don’t have to watch too many whodunits to realise the numerous ways of the slight-of-hand.
But that exposure wasn’t all positive. If Ramey had not of staged that photo-op there would be a lot less meat on the Roswell bone since it has given the pro-Roswell faction a whole lot of ammo, a whole separate avenue to attack from. Obviously once out of the clutches of the military, Marcel denied that what was photographed in Ramey’s office had anything to do with what he and others found outside of Roswell. It was chalk and cheese. Independent verification for the deception comes from Ramey’s former Chief-of-Staff, Colonel DuBose (who retired as a Brigadier General). In a signed affidavit (16 September 1991 – after he retired from the military) DuBose stated “The material shown in the photographs taken in Gen. Ramey’s office was a weather balloon. The weather balloon explanation for the [Roswell] material was a cover story to divert the attention of the press.” It’s on the public record.
Despite claims to the contrary, if you go with the philosophy that if you weren’t someone who saw and handled the debris then you weren’t a primary witness, then the photographs taken of the ‘wreckage’ in General Ramey’s office is not primary evidence for Roswell = balloon given the chance for substitution of debris materials to conform to the new official ‘weather balloon’ line.
Transport of Roswell Debris: How Much Stuff Was Removed?
For starters, the amount of Roswell material or wreckage according to the original discoverer W. W. “Mac” Brazel, confirmed by Major Jesse Marcel, well Brazel noted that the debris field was about 200 yards wide and 3/4ths of a mile long (or some 240,000 square yards), the entirety of that massive area covered with this stuff that Brazel couldn’t identify and he had previously found a couple of downed weather balloons on the property (of which he was the foreman, not the owner). That Brazel couldn’t identify the stuff was the stimulus that set in train the chain of events that led to him calling the civilian authorise (local law enforcement) hence they in turn alerting the military at the nearby RAAF. And the rest as they say is history! A Mogul balloon train is at best only 600 feet long – assuming that’s the reality behind Roswell. Alas, that’s not hardly sufficient quantity of stuff to account for the size of the debris field as related by Brazel. Okay, once the debris was discovered and collected, it was transported.
To Fort Worth: A B-29 was half-loaded or half-filled with crated Roswell wreckage, along with a separate satchel for General Ramey and along with Major Marcel transported to Fort Worth AAF for that General Ramey photo-op. A half-filled B-29 amounts to an awful lot of stuff but that’s what Major Marcel claimed to be the case, and he was there. Apparently then the Roswell material was reloaded onto a B-25 and hence continued on to Wright Field with the bulk of the Roswell cargo. Marcel returned to RAAF the following day.
To Wright Field: Both an FBI-telex (evening of 8 July 1947) and statements by Brigadier General Arthur Exon who was stationed at Wright Field in July 1947 and later became the base CO, an officer in a position to know what went on, confirmed that Roswell debris was sent to Wright Field for analysis. In fairness of course neither the FBI nor General Exon actually examined the debris at Wright Field (because of that military and otherwise official policy of ‘need to know’ officially called compartmentation). The flight from RAAF to Wright Field was via a C-54 piloted by Captain Oliver W. “Pappy” Henderson, which, to be honest, doesn’t make Henderson either an actual eyewitness to the debris itself (that ‘need to know’ again). Regarding your need to know, even if you have a need to know you are only given as much knowledge as you need to have in order to do your job – no more, no less. Most people albeit in the loop rarely see the Big Picture.
To Washington, D.C.: That Roswell debris was forwarded onto Washington, D.C. was confirmed by Ramey’s Chief-of-Staff, Thomas DuBose, in DuBose’s affidavit referred to above. DuBose stated that “The entire operation was conducted under the strictest secrecy.” The orders to immediately ship Roswell debris via Fort Worth to Andrews Air Field (Washington, D.C.) was given by the Deputy Commander of the Strategic Air Command (SAC), Major General Clements McMullen, stationed at the Pentagon. General McMullen’s orders were given directly to Colonel Blanchard at Roswell and also given directly to Colonel Thomas DuBose (Chief-of-Staff to General Ramey) at Fort Worth AAF according to DuBose himself in that 16 September 1991 signed affidavit.
To Los Alamos: On 9 July 1947 three C-54’s carried Roswell debris from RAAF to Los Alamos, New Mexico via Kirtland Field.
So we have Roswell debris material distributed between four separate locations via six separate military aircraft – that’s a lot of aircraft, especially four C-54’s, to transport the remains of one balloon, even a Mogul balloon. Not even the Roswell sceptics deny that Roswell wreckage was sent to Fort Worth AAF, Wright Field and Washington, D.C. which is all very mysterious if the Roswell wreckage was just run-of-the-mill terrestrial-in-origin balloon stuff.
Why Was Roswell Stuff Transported? We know the Roswell debris was ordered removed from the RAAF premises and ordered transported to Fort Worth Army Air Field; Wright Field (now Wright-Patterson AFB); Los Alamos and Washington, D.C. Why? If the debris material(s) were routine terrestrial balloon and foil type stuff, what was the point? Okay, a satchel full of the material went to General Ramey at Fort Worth for his photo-op PR stunt instead of Ramey going to Roswell AAF (rank has its privileges), but why Wright Field; Los Alamos and Washington, DC? Of course if the debris wasn’t routine terrestrial stuff but potentially out-of-this-world stuff, well, mystery solved. Wright Field and Los Alamos have the technical labs for out-of-this-world analysis; Washington, D.C. is of course where officialdom has its HQ.
Timeline Discrepancies: A great deal has been made of some timeline discrepancies given by relevant Roswell witnesses in testimony. I’m not too worried about these slight discrepancies in recollections that constitute a definitive timeline. The Roswell events only seriously resurfaced in 1980, some 33 years after the fact and from those relatively few witnesses still alive. Again, all that testimony was at least 33 years old or greater, often much greater (it’s not always easy to track down witnesses so long after-the-fact). Let’s just say that I’d be hard pressed to recall exact ordering of important/unique events in my life 33 years on. I’d be sure to be slightly off when placing specifics into a broader context.
While on all things fodder for the sceptics, while any one or two facets regarding the Roswell incident can be debated and disputed (other than Roswell personnel confusing balloon material for a crashed disk that’s just too far beyond the pale so that point is not up for debate), there’s collectively just too many bits and pieces when taken together that the total package can not be dismissed or disputed. One quickly begins to butt heads against pure improbability that all facets are pure bovine fertilizer.
Was There A Roswell Cover-Up? Apart from the General Ramey photo-op (which we now know for certain was a cover-up since Roswell has now been ‘explained away’ as a Project Mogul balloon), and because of public pressure for answers to the bona fides behind the July 1947 Roswell event, the General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigative arm of the US Congress, requested all relevant government records and documentation, especially those RAAF records, only to find and so reported in their July 1995 findings that all RAAF administrative records from March 1945 through December 1949 had been inexplicably destroyed, as had been outgoing messages from October 1946 through December 1949. These were documents that by law should not have been destroyed, but from the point of view of officialdom, how very bloody convenient they were. And by the way, the GAO document is a publicly available document which any Roswell sceptic can check. It goes under the title Results of a Search for Records Concerning the 1947 Crash Near Roswell, New Mexico.
Eyewitness Testimony: UFO skeptics always hammer home the point that eyewitness testimony is about as reliable as a $7 bill. While total rubbishing any and all eyewitness testimony is more than just a slight exaggeration on the part of skeptics that is a valid point as any courtroom lawyer will affirm. In any event, eyewitness testimony regarding points of lights in the sky with no frames of reference is one thing – eyewitness testimony about physical stuff you are actually holding in your hand (like Roswell’s debris) is quite a different matter.
The Nature of the Debris: The eyewitness description of the found and recovered Roswell wreckage doesn’t seem to be at face value something that’s very alien and exotic, not that we collectively have a lot of firsthand experience dealing with alien stuff.
The debris seems to sort itself into three categories. There’s aluminium foil-like stuff that is frequently noted as two-sided; foil on one side; rubberish or leatherish on the other. The anomaly is that this ‘foil’ was extremely strong; it couldn’t be torn or cut; it wouldn’t burn; it wouldn’t permanently crush but would return to its original shape. Then there’s ‘I-beams’ or bamboo-like or balsawood-like sticks. The anomaly is that these had strange hieroglyphic-like or petroglyph-like. Lastly there was a brittle plastic-like stuff, like Bakelite. It doesn’t seem anomalous. All the three categories were lightweight.
Misidentification: There has got to have been tens of thousands of large balloons (weather, secret and other) that have been launched and come back down to terra firma and been found by your average Joe & Mary Citizen, yet there’s only been one Roswell type event where a balloon was allegedly misidentified as a “flying saucer” by not just one but a potful of military officers from the US Army Air Force. If Joe & Mary Citizen don’t ever misidentify downed balloon material for alien spaceships, it’s pretty absurd that military offices in the US AAF would. As we have read from statements by those who actually handled the stuff, there was no chance of a misidentification of the Roswell stuff for balloon materials.
Other Stuff: Reports and scuttlebutt of a second crash and crash site and alien bodies, while interesting, are actually surplus to needs and contributes nothing further to evidence provided by the Roswell incident that extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) exists, or at least existed in July 1947. They just muddy the waters with extraneous information. A second crash site and alien bodies go beyond the information given in the original Lt. Haut press release which is the actual smoking gun document. In fact given the history of deliberate misinformation and disinformation being fed to all and sundry by the powers-that-be, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if information regarding a second crash site and alien bodies were deliberate misinformation and disinformation feeds from those powers-that-be to help discredit the original Roswell story by tainting the entire topic as so over-the-top as to have it lose all credibility in the eyes of all and sundry.
Some sceptics might argue that the prime document doesn’t exist since all copies of Haut’s press release were ordered to be confiscated, or otherwise collected back from which they had been distributed. That retrieval done, the offending document copies were then destroyed. However, the original Roswell information didn’t get into the media (local, national and international), both in print and audio (recording of radio broadcasts exist) by magic. The media didn’t dream this up as an April Fools Day prank. The press release existed; Colonel Blanchard ordered it; Lt. Haut wrote it up on information provided by Colonel Blanchard and then hand-carried and delivered it to the two local Roswell newspaper offices and the two radio stations where it took off with a life of its own. You can’t get the worms back into the can once the can is opened (or the cat back into the bag).
Museum Pieces: If the Roswell debris were just the remains of a weather balloon, or the now declassified remains of a Project Mogul balloon, there’s absolutely no reason why the powers-that-be shouldn’t put those actual remains on display in a museum, say the Air Force Museum or the Air & Space Museum. It would make a really popular attraction given all the publicity Roswell has generated. I’ve never seen any documentation that the debris was ever disposed of in the rubbish bin. It still should exist.
However, if the Roswell debris were actually the remains of extraterrestrial technology then it should be obvious to Blind Freddy why it’s not on public display. Since it’s not on public display, well you can come to your own conclusion as to why.
I bring up the topic of museums because it has been asked of me what definitive piece of UFO evidence would I see fit to put into a museum as an exhibit and evidence, even proof of extraterrestrial visitations for the whole wide world to see. As to what I would put in the Powerhouse Museum, or the Air Force Museum or the Air & Space Museum, etc. it would be the debris from the Roswell incident – if I had it. I don’t, but the American Government does, so why don’t you folks out there kindly ask the powers-that-be to place it there – assuming they are through with it of course. I bet if they did it wouldn’t be anything that originated from Project Mogul.
One Final Puzzlement: One thing puzzles me in a funny-peculiar not funny-ha-ha way. It’s a discrepancy I’ve never seen anyone else pick up on. If you read the original Roswell AAF press release or read the first accounts in the media (say the Roswell Daily Record, 8 July 1947) you will get phrases like “flying saucer”; “flying disk”; “disk was recovered”; “found the instrument”; “recovered the disk”; “inspected the instrument”; “saucer’s construction, or it’s appearance”; “gain possession of a disk”; “the flying object landed”; “the rancher stored the disk”; “the disk was picked up at the rancher’s home”, etc. Note that the words “crashed” or “crashed landed”; “debris”; “wreckage”; “pieces”, etc. never appear. That’s odd and I’m not sure what to make of it since how do you ascertain something is a “disk” if everything is in bits and pieces. It may have absolutely no significance at all.
Conclusion: Roswell = Mogul? Mogul is a nonsense answer. No matter how you slice and dice it, it’s still balloon material. If you find one scrap of balloon material or stuff that pretty much gives the game away, no matter what else is attached. Keep in mind it was the purpose of the mission, not the materials that was classified. I repeat, if senior military personnel cannot distinguish balloon debris from a crashed metallic disc, something is screwy somewhere. It’s like an astronomer not being able to distinguish the sun from the moon – pretty implausible. Further, why did the powers-that-be wait until 1995 to come out with the Mogul theory as the ultimate Roswell explanation? You can’t possibly tell me that the project was only declassified some fifty years after the fact when its usefulness and purpose was worthless the minute the U-2 and then orbiting satellites started monitoring the Soviet Union. No, Mogul is pure bovine fertilizer; deliberate misinformation.
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